Usage charts for every receiver and back

Every receiver and back this season, placed by two numbers you choose. A faint line runs back from each named player to where he stood after his previous game.

2026 season through Week 8 · nflverse weekly stats · PPR points, from your settings

Player, season to date Where a named player was after his previous game Out or on IR In doubt

Dashed lines are the medians of the players shown.

Buy-low and sell-high candidates, through Week 8

The players furthest from what their usage usually scores, and the roles worth the most. Season to date, in your scoring; players out or on IR are left off.

Receivers due to score more

Scoring the furthest below what their targets usually produce. See the chart

  1. Michael Wilson WR, ARI 13.6 points a game on 20.4 expected
  2. DK Metcalf WR, PIT 9.7 points a game on 14.4 expected
  3. Matthew Golden WR, GB 16.4 points a game on 19.2 expected
  4. Xavier Hutchinson WR, HOU 7.8 points a game on 10.6 expected
  5. Courtland Sutton WR, DEN 6.0 points a game on 8.7 expected
  6. Jalen Nailor WR, LV 4.9 points a game on 7.5 expected

Receivers outscoring their targets

Scoring the furthest above what that usage usually produces, which rarely lasts. See the chart

  1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR, SEA 27.5 points a game on 20.2 expected
  2. Mike Gesicki TE, CIN 12.8 points a game on 8.1 expected
  3. Tee Higgins WR, CIN 19.9 points a game on 15.2 expected
  4. Rashee Rice WR, KC 14.1 points a game on 9.8 expected
  5. Zay Flowers WR, BAL 17.5 points a game on 13.6 expected
  6. Caleb Douglas WR, MIA 11.9 points a game on 8.3 expected

Running backs due to score more

Scoring the furthest below what their workload usually produces. See the chart

  1. Jadarian Price RB, SEA 4.9 points a game on 9.7 expected
  2. Kendre Miller RB, NO 6.4 points a game on 10.5 expected
  3. Chase Brown RB, CIN 13.0 points a game on 16.8 expected
  4. J.K. Dobbins RB, DEN 7.4 points a game on 10.1 expected
  5. Mike Washington Jr. RB, LV 4.7 points a game on 7.2 expected
  6. Quinshon Judkins RB, CLE 12.4 points a game on 14.8 expected

Running backs outscoring their workload

Scoring the furthest above what that usage usually produces, which rarely lasts. See the chart

  1. Bhayshul Tuten RB, JAX 16.9 points a game on 13.8 expected
  2. Jaylen Warren RB, PIT 17.6 points a game on 15.2 expected
  3. Jahmyr Gibbs RB, DET 28.0 points a game on 25.9 expected
  4. Blake Corum RB, LA 10.3 points a game on 8.3 expected
  5. James Cook RB, BUF 18.8 points a game on 16.9 expected
  6. Chuba Hubbard RB, CAR 19.0 points a game on 17.1 expected

Backs with the most high-value touches

Catches plus carries inside the 10: a quarter of a back's touches, over half his fantasy points. See the chart

  1. Jahmyr Gibbs RB, DET 7.3 a game, of 27.3 touches
  2. Christian McCaffrey RB, SF 6.7 a game, of 16.9 touches
  3. D'Andre Swift RB, CHI 6.2 a game, of 20.9 touches
  4. Kenneth Walker III RB, KC 6.1 a game, of 23.3 touches
  5. Chase Brown RB, CIN 6.1 a game, of 18.6 touches
  6. Ashton Jeanty RB, LV 5.9 a game, of 18.1 touches

Deep roles the yards haven't caught up to

A big share of the team's air yards and few yards per air yard so far, which tends to even out. See the chart

  1. DK Metcalf WR, PIT 38% of air yards, 0.47 yards per air yard
  2. Jordan Addison WR, MIN 38% of air yards, 0.50 yards per air yard
  3. Denzel Boston WR, CLE 45% of air yards, 0.51 yards per air yard
  4. Michael Wilson WR, ARI 40% of air yards, 0.53 yards per air yard
  5. Matthew Golden WR, GB 41% of air yards, 0.53 yards per air yard
  6. Courtland Sutton WR, DEN 31% of air yards, 0.54 yards per air yard
Target share leaders, WR and TE
#PlayerTeam Target shareTargets / game Expected pts / game
1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR SEA 35.7% 11.1 20.2
2 Puka Nacua WR LA 34.1% 12.3 21.2
3 DeVonta Smith WR PHI 32.8% 10.2 17.9
4 CeeDee Lamb WR DAL 31.3% 11.5 20.7
5 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR DET 31.1% 10.9 19.7
6 Malik Nabers WR NYG 30.0% 10.0 17.9
7 Zay Flowers WR BAL 29.7% 8.3 13.6
8 Drake London WR ATL 28.8% 7.8 13.1
9 Garrett Wilson WR NYJ 27.6% 7.9 13.8
10 Brock Bowers TE LV 27.6% 10.2 18.7
11 Trey McBride TE ARI 27.5% 10.8 18.8
12 Matthew Golden WR GB 27.2% 10.2 19.2
13 Justin Jefferson WR MIN 27.0% 6.7 12.0
14 Chris Olave WR NO 27.0% 10.1 17.7
15 Isaiah Likely TE NYG 27.0% 9.0 15.1
16 Tetairoa McMillan WR CAR 26.4% 9.3 16.7
17 Emeka Egbuka WR TB 26.2% 8.2 15.0
18 Carnell Tate WR TEN 26.2% 7.3 12.7
19 Michael Wilson WR ARI 25.9% 10.1 20.4
20 Malik Washington WR MIA 25.1% 6.4 11.6
21 Parker Washington WR JAX 24.6% 6.9 12.7
22 DK Metcalf WR PIT 23.9% 8.0 14.4
23 Mike Evans WR SF 23.5% 6.5 12.5
24 Tyler Warren TE IND 23.5% 7.7 13.0
25 Tee Higgins WR CIN 23.4% 8.7 15.2

Season to date through Week 8, players with at least half their team's games.

The tests behind these charts

Each view was chosen by testing it. For each measure this map can plot, a player's first four games of 2025 were set against his fantasy points a game over the rest of the season. For receivers, target share predicted best (0.70 rank correlation), ahead of points already scored (0.63). Expected points was close behind (0.66), and snap share and targets per snap held up (0.56 and 0.50). For backs, expected points led (0.60), followed by touches and snap share.

Points above expected barely predicts points (0.11), but it is the strongest sign of a change (−0.51): players running hot cooled off, and players running cold caught up. The two lined charts show that. Efficiency stats (yards per target, EPA, rushing yards over expected) faded the same way, and aDOT and separation hardly predicted at all. Their views sit under How they play, where they describe a player's season so far and say little about the weeks ahead.

Expected points price every target by how far downfield it was thrown and from where, and every carry by where it started, at last season's league rates. Play-by-play and Next Gen Stats from nflverse.