Who is being used like a starter
Target share, air yards and targets per game from the games already played. Opportunity, not production — opportunity is the half that predicts the rest.
- of its top 20 broke out
- 35%
- base rate for the same pool
- 6%
- better than picking blind
- 5.5×
2025 season, not 2026. Through 4 games. This season's weekly data isn't published yet; the board goes live once games are in, usually week 2.
| # | Player | Pos | Target share | Targets/gm | Breakout odds | vs preseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zay Flowers | WR | 31.8% | 8.0 | 45%+ | ▲56 |
| 2 | Rashee Rice | WR | 25.5% | 8.8 | 45%+ | ▲58 |
| 3 | Rome Odunze | WR | 27.3% | 9.0 | 45%+ | ▲17 |
| 4 | Tetairoa McMillan rookie | WR | 25.9% | 8.8 | 45%+ | -4 |
| 5 | Quentin Johnston | WR | 25.2% | 9.0 | 45%+ | ▲35 |
| 6 | Tyler Warren rookie | TE | 22.7% | 6.8 | 40% | -8 |
| 7 | Emeka Egbuka rookie | WR | 23.2% | 7.8 | 33% | -31 |
| 8 | Juwan Johnson | TE | 21.2% | 7.8 | 31% | unlisted |
| 9 | Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | 22.1% | 6.8 | 28% | -30 |
| 10 | George Pickens | WR | 19.6% | 8.2 | 25% | unlisted |
| 11 | Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 20.8% | 6.8 | 22% | -18 |
| 12 | Jerry Jeudy | WR | 20.0% | 7.5 | 20% | unlisted |
| 13 | Troy Franklin | WR | 20.7% | 6.8 | 16% | +9 |
| 14 | Brenton Strange | TE | 16.7% | 5.8 | 14% | +9 |
| 15 | Ricky Pearsall | WR | 19.6% | 7.2 | 14% | +1 |
| 16 | Albert Okwuegbunam | TE | 16.7% | 6.0 | 14% | unlisted |
| 17 | Keon Coleman | WR | 18.0% | 6.0 | 14% | -12 |
| 18 | Tucker Kraft | TE | 18.5% | 5.0 | 14% | -9 |
| 19 | Travis Hunter rookie | WR | 15.9% | 5.2 | 13% | -23 |
| 20 | Harold Fannin Jr. rookie | TE | 15.8% | 6.0 | 12% | -10 |
| below here the hit rate drops sharply | ||||||
| 21 | Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | 16.6% | 5.5 | 11% | unlisted |
| 22 | Rashid Shaheed | WR | 17.8% | 6.2 | 10% | -33 |
| 23 | Elic Ayomanor rookie | WR | 23.1% | 6.2 | 10% | -11 |
| 24 | Dalton Kincaid | TE | 16.4% | 4.8 | 10% | -31 |
| 25 | Jayden Reed | WR | 17.3% | 4.5 | 10% | -8 |
| 26 | Xavier Legette | WR | 14.1% | 5.0 | 9% | -12 |
| 27 | Kendrick Bourne | WR | 14.3% | 6.0 | 8% | unlisted |
| 28 | Sterling Shepard | WR | 14.7% | 4.8 | 8% | unlisted |
| 29 | Tre Tucker | WR | 17.5% | 5.5 | 7% | +5 |
| 30 | Josh Downs | WR | 15.6% | 4.8 | 7% | -9 |
| 31 | Chig Okonkwo | TE | 16.5% | 4.8 | 7% | -12 |
| 32 | Xavier Worthy | WR | 15.6% | 5.5 | 7% | -33 |
| 33 | Rashod Bateman | WR | 16.5% | 4.2 | 7% | unlisted |
| 34 | Khalil Shakir | WR | 16.1% | 5.0 | 7% | -49 |
| 35 | Mason Taylor rookie | TE | 14.3% | 4.0 | 7% | -14 |
| 36 | Greg Dulcich | TE | 15.6% | 3.8 | 7% | -19 |
| 37 | Michael Mayer | TE | 12.7% | 3.5 | 6% | +0 |
| 38 | Britain Covey | WR | 11.8% | 4.0 | 5% | +5 |
| 39 | Cedric Tillman | WR | 12.8% | 5.0 | 5% | +3 |
| 40 | Tom Kennedy | WR | 14.8% | 4.0 | 4% | unlisted |
| 41 | Isaiah Williams | WR | 12.5% | 3.0 | 4% | +4 |
| 42 | Dyami Brown | WR | 13.7% | 4.5 | 4% | unlisted |
| 43 | Parker Washington | WR | 15.7% | 5.5 | 4% | -23 |
| 44 | Theo Johnson | TE | 13.4% | 3.8 | 4% | -17 |
| 45 | Darnell Washington | TE | 13.1% | 3.8 | 4% | -20 |
| 46 | Shane Zylstra | TE | 9.6% | 5.0 | 4% | unlisted |
| 47 | Jake Tonges | TE | 10.8% | 4.0 | 3% | unlisted |
| 48 | Jalen Tolbert | WR | 11.3% | 4.8 | 3% | -4 |
| 49 | Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | 12.3% | 4.0 | 3% | +1 |
| 50 | Tommy Tremble | TE | 10.5% | 3.5 | 3% | unlisted |
| 51 | Drake Dabney rookie | TE | 20.0% | 2.0 | 3% | +3 |
| 52 | Ryan Flournoy | WR | 15.4% | 5.0 | 3% | -6 |
| 53 | Romeo Doubs | WR | 16.7% | 4.8 | 3% | -72 |
| 54 | Jalen Nailor | WR | 17.5% | 4.5 | 3% | +2 |
| 55 | Oronde Gadsden II rookie | TE | 11.9% | 4.8 | 3% | -19 |
| 56 | Zay Jones | WR | 10.7% | 3.8 | 3% | unlisted |
| 57 | Josh Palmer | WR | 12.0% | 4.0 | 3% | unlisted |
| 58 | Darnell Mooney | WR | 15.9% | 5.2 | 3% | unlisted |
| 59 | Ja'Tavion Sanders | TE | 10.1% | 4.0 | 3% | -3 |
| 60 | Brock Wright | TE | 9.3% | 2.5 | 2% | unlisted |
How this list is built, and how far to trust it
What it reads. Early target share, air-yards share, targets per game and adot — opportunity rather than production, because opportunity is the half that carries into the rest of the season. Players already established are excluded, as is anyone under two targets a game, where there is no usage signal to read.
Against the preseason board. The two agree more than you would think: over six seasons about half of this board's top ten are also in Breakouts' top twenty-five, and for those, Breakouts already told you. What only this page can see is the disagreement — players outrunning their August billing, and players no preseason list had at all. That is the vs preseason column.
How it was measured. Walk-forward across 7 seasons (2019–2025), each scored by a model trained only on the seasons before it. The 35% carries a 95% interval of 27–43%, so read it as "about a third", not a precise figure. It also counts the whole season, including the four games the pick is made from; grading only what came after — the part you can still act on — it is 29% against 8%, a 3.4× edge.
Where it stops working. By rank band the edge holds to about 20 and then falls off sharply: ranks 21–30 run at twice the base rate, and below 30 it is near noise. Read the first 20 as the shortlist, not the whole list of 164.