Players used like starters
Target share, air yards and targets per game from the games already played. Opportunity predicts the rest of a season better than production does, so this list ranks opportunity.
- of its top 20 broke out
- 32%
- base rate for the same pool
- 6%
- better than picking blind
- 5.5×
vs August: change in his breakout odds since the preseason board, in points. ▲ up 15 or more. unlisted not on the preseason board.
| # | Player | Pos | vs August | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 26.9% | 9.8 | 45%+ | ▲17 |
| 2 | Michael Wilson Questionable | WR | 29.2% | 11.0 | 45%+ | ▲19 |
| 3 | Isaiah Likely | TE | 31.0% | 8.8 | 45%+ | ▲51 |
| 4 | Matthew Golden | WR | 24.4% | 9.2 | 43% | +9 |
| 5 | Jalen Coker | WR | 25.3% | 8.8 | 42% | ▲21 |
| 6 | Christian Watson Questionable | WR | 21.9% | 8.0 | 37% | ▲24 |
| 7 | Carnell Tate Out rookie | WR | 29.9% | 8.0 | 36% | -23 |
| 8 | Luther Burden III | WR | 23.6% | 7.2 | 35% | +6 |
| 9 | KC Concepcion rookie | WR | 24.2% | 7.0 | 34% | +4 |
| 10 | Michael Mayer | TE | 17.2% | 6.0 | 23% | ▲23 |
| 11 | Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | 19.1% | 5.8 | 22% | -36 |
| 12 | Josh Downs | WR | 22.3% | 7.0 | 20% | -4 |
| 13 | Malik Washington | WR | 27.3% | 7.0 | 20% | ▲19 |
| 14 | Kalif Raymond | WR | 19.6% | 5.8 | 18% | unlisted |
| 15 | Emeka Egbuka Out | WR | 19.6% | 6.0 | 16% | -37 |
| 16 | Xavier Worthy | WR | 18.7% | 5.5 | 15% | -17 |
| 17 | Khalil Shakir | WR | 20.3% | 5.8 | 13% | -43 |
| 18 | Adonai Mitchell | WR | 21.4% | 6.8 | 11% | +4 |
| 19 | Brenton Strange | TE | 18.7% | 4.5 | 10% | +1 |
| 20 | Kenyon Sadiq rookie | TE | 17.6% | 4.5 | 10% | -45 |
| Below here, the hit rate drops sharply | ||||||
| 21 | Parker Washington | WR | 25.7% | 6.5 | 9% | -34 |
| 22 | Kendrick Bourne IR | WR | 14.1% | 5.5 | 9% | unlisted |
| 23 | Mason Taylor | TE | 16.2% | 4.5 | 9% | -19 |
| 24 | Tre Harris | WR | 17.8% | 5.2 | 8% | -4 |
| 25 | Quentin Johnston | WR | 16.5% | 4.8 | 8% | +3 |
| 26 | Greg Dulcich | TE | 14.9% | 4.2 | 7% | -19 |
| 27 | Roman Wilson IR | WR | 16.8% | 6.0 | 7% | +2 |
| 28 | Chig Okonkwo | TE | 16.9% | 5.0 | 7% | -12 |
| 29 | Devaughn Vele | WR | 18.3% | 7.8 | 7% | +7 |
| 30 | Terrance Ferguson IR | TE | 12.6% | 4.0 | 6% | -26 |
| 31 | Germie Bernard rookie | WR | 15.0% | 5.0 | 6% | -2 |
| 32 | Rome Odunze | WR | 16.3% | 5.0 | 6% | -26 |
| 33 | Caleb Douglas rookie | WR | 18.3% | 4.8 | 6% | -30 |
| 34 | Jerry Jeudy | WR | 13.1% | 3.8 | 6% | unlisted |
| 35 | Makai Lemon rookie | WR | 15.3% | 3.8 | 5% | -51 |
| 36 | Jayden Reed IR | WR | 10.5% | 4.0 | 5% | -19 |
| 37 | Ryan Flournoy | WR | 16.1% | 5.8 | 5% | +0 |
| 38 | Xavier Hutchinson | WR | 19.4% | 6.5 | 5% | -6 |
| 39 | Tre Tucker | WR | 17.0% | 5.8 | 5% | +1 |
| 40 | Antonio Williams rookie | WR | 14.5% | 4.8 | 5% | -1 |
| 41 | Kevin Coleman Jr. rookie | WR | 17.3% | 4.2 | 4% | -11 |
| 42 | Keon Coleman | WR | 14.0% | 4.0 | 4% | -20 |
| 43 | Rashod Bateman | WR | 14.3% | 3.8 | 4% | unlisted |
| 44 | AJ Barner | TE | 11.8% | 3.8 | 4% | -35 |
| 45 | Mack Hollins IR | WR | 16.7% | 5.0 | 4% | unlisted |
| 46 | Tommy Tremble | TE | 10.2% | 3.8 | 4% | unlisted |
| 47 | Dontayvion Wicks Out | WR | 19.0% | 5.0 | 4% | +4 |
| 48 | Omar Cooper Jr. rookie | WR | 15.2% | 4.3 | 4% | -44 |
| 49 | Dohnte Meyers rookie | WR | 9.2% | 4.0 | 3% | unlisted |
| 50 | Denzel Boston rookie | WR | 19.0% | 5.5 | 3% | -15 |
| 51 | Will Mallory | TE | 15.0% | 4.5 | 3% | -6 |
| 52 | Erick All IR | TE | 10.0% | 3.0 | 3% | +1 |
| 53 | Skyy Moore IR | WR | 8.3% | 3.2 | 3% | -7 |
| 54 | Romeo Doubs IR | WR | 16.8% | 5.0 | 3% | -72 |
| 55 | Rashid Shaheed Out | WR | 14.3% | 3.8 | 3% | -40 |
| 56 | Gunnar Helm | TE | 11.2% | 3.0 | 3% | -11 |
| 57 | Darnell Washington | TE | 9.1% | 3.2 | 3% | -13 |
| 58 | Jack Bech | WR | 10.3% | 3.0 | 2% | -17 |
| 59 | John Metchie III | WR | 8.3% | 3.2 | 2% | -15 |
| 60 | Charlie Kolar | TE | 11.8% | 3.2 | 2% | +1 |
Method and track record
Inputs. Early target share, air-yards share, targets per game and aDOT. These measure opportunity, which carries into the rest of the season better than production does. Established players are excluded, as is anyone under two targets a game, where there is no usage signal to read.
Against the preseason board. The two agree more than you might expect. Over six seasons, about half of this board's top ten were also in Breakouts' top twenty-five, so Breakouts had already flagged them. This page adds the disagreement: players outrunning their August billing, and players no preseason list had at all. That is the vs August column.
Backtest. Walk-forward across 8 seasons (2019–2026), each scored by a model trained only on the seasons before it. The 32% carries a 95% interval of 26–40%, so read it as about a third. That figure counts the whole season, including the four games the pick is made from. Graded only on what came after, the part you can still act on, it is 27% against 8%, a 3.4× edge.
Limits. By rank band, the edge holds to about 20 and then falls off sharply. Ranks 21–30 run at twice the base rate, and below 30 it is close to noise. Treat the first 20 of the 120 as the shortlist.