WR/TE Breakout Mixer
Live layer omitted — historical board
Weight what you think predicts a breakout, and the board re-ranks every active WR, TE and incoming rookie within its own position as you go.
A player's Fit is the weighted average of the stats he actually has. Turn up a stat he has no data for and that weight slides onto his other numbers, so it never costs him anything. Scoring stays within position, so a great tight end is measured against tight ends, not bumped up into receiver territory. Hover any stat name for what it is and how it's figured.
data: how much of your active weighting he has real numbers behind, relative to what's achievable for HIS pool (a rookie is never measured against NFL usage stats he can't have yet -- he's compared to other rookies' coverage instead, and a vet to other vets')vs proj / vs market: your rank next to the tool's own projected-PPG ranking, and next to the fantasy market's consensus. Green means you're higher on him than they are (your sleeper).Scoring(⚙ Settings): each spot is valued at its real fantasy PPG.Guardrails: efficiency stats are ignored under 250 snaps, and Experimental ones start at zero.
PositionPool
Display & scoring settings
Show rows
Breakout line PPG
A player has "broken out" once a season tops this (TEs judged at ~70%, since 14 is elite for a TE). Candidates = those who never have.
Risk lens
Tilt toward each player's projection floor (safe) or ceiling (upside).
Scoring / position value
Standard values TEs at their real (lower) fantasy PPG so a great TE doesn't float up to great-WR level. TE‑premium boosts them. Within‑pos ignores position (pure peer rank).
Tiers / dropoffs
Groups the board into tiers and marks the big dropoffs in value.
Minimum data
Rookies%In-career%
Hides anyone below this much lever coverage (the "data" column) instead of showing a low-confidence Fit for them -- each measured against what's achievable for HIS pool, so these are two independent knobs, not one shared number. Rookies default low (5%) since thin NFL-stat coverage is structural for them, not a red flag -- pedigree/college/combine is the whole picture pre-debut. In-career defaults low too (25%): a 50% default was hiding a coming-off-injury player with a real but short season (e.g. 4 games, 30% coverage) right alongside the players this board specifically exists to surface -- exactly what the ghost-row shrink earlier today was built to protect, undone an hour later by this default. Raise it to 40-50% yourself when you specifically want a high-confidence-only view; nothing's hidden without you asking for it now. Set either to 0 to turn it off.
Levers
Ranking
#
Player
Pos
Team
vs proj
vs market
Fit
data
Proj (range)
Live formulaFit = ( Σ w·zstat ) ÷ Σ w × confidence